The conventional thinking in Head-to-Head points leagues used to be that high-end starting pitching was the way to go. I never subscribed to that thinking myself, for reasons not worth getting into now, but there was a logic to it at a time when high-starting pitchers would throw upward of 220 innings.
But starting pitchers, even the high-end ones, don't do that anymore, which means the script has almost flipped. What you're getting in a high-end hurler isn't so much volume but effectiveness, which manifests more in the way of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts -- three contributions of great importance in traditional 5x5 scoring but of milder, almost peripheral influence in standard CBS points scoring. It doesn't mean Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes aren't the best pitchers to draft in the latter -- they're certainly in the discussion -- but you'll come closer to mimicking their production later in a points league than you would in, say a Rotisserie league.
At least among the self-professed experts, the word seems to have gotten out. In our latest Head-to-Head points mock, the first pitcher was drafted 11th overall. The second was drafted 14th overall. Both went to the same drafter, and I'll advise you to look at the way his team turned out. No further comment -- just look.
So if pitching isn't my focus early on, what is? Impact bats -- the kind that could actually set your team apart in a format where nobody's lineup is going to look bad -- at as many positions as possible. There are only nine hitter spots to fill, after all, so having anything less than a stud in one is a potential liability. It's why Head-to-Head points is the format where I'm most likely to draft a stud catcher, and I indeed did in this mock, taking William Contreras at the start of Round 4.
Unfortunately, this group of drafters was hip to this idea as well, because by the end of Round 5, all the impact bats were gone (particularly in the context of a points league, where I'd be hard-pressed to say someone like Oneil Cruz qualifies). As such, I ended taking my first two starting pitchers earlier in this mock (Rounds 5 and 6) than any other.
But you can come about impact hitters in other ways, whether by identifying those who low-key thrive in a less-familiar format or by rolling the dice on perceived injury risks. That was the thinking behind me targeting Christian Yelich, who averaged more points per game last year than Mookie Betts, and Nico Hoerner, who was the fourth-best second baseman in this format last year and the third-best two years ago. Once the Round 5-6 turn arrived, it made more sense to hold out for them than settle for mid-tier production.
There's a reason they were discounted, of course, but even if they go wrong, only 252 players are rostered at a time in this format, making the waiver wire fertile in competent replacements. I would have also liked to roll the dice on Carlos Correa or Xavier Edwards to meet my shortstop need, seeing as their point-per-game averages last year rivaled those of Trea Turner and Elly De La Cruz, respectively, but I ended up waiting too long for both, making shortstop my position of greatest need going into the season.
As you've probably deduced by now, I was drafting with some pretty sharp hombres. Allow me to introduce them to you:
1) Nick Fox, NBC Sports (@CT_FOX)
2) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
3) Sean Millerick, Marlins Maniac (@miasportsminute)
4) Steve Giangaspro, Tablesetters: A Baseball Podcast (@SGroundballTS)
5) Jeremy Heist, Pitcher List (@heistjm)
6) Anthony Kates, SportsEthos (@akfantasybb)
7) Chris Mitchell, FantasyData (@CJMitch73)
8) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
9) Devin Milligan, Tablesetters: A Baseball Podcast (@tablesetters)
10) Nathan Judah, Express & Star (@NathanJudah)
11) B_Don, Razzball (@RazzBDon)
12) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
Just a few more observations before we get to the results:
- I've mentioned elsewhere that first base is the position where you're most likely to get boxed out because the various bands of talent tend to be drafted in clusters. I made a point to avoid that heartache in this draft, opting for Vladimir Guerrero over Francisco Lindor in Round 2 even though the format slightly favors the latter. Turns out I never had another shot at a starting-caliber first baseman, which furthers my belief that if you do find yourself debating two players early on, the tie should go to the first baseman.
- The value of closers is greatly reduced in this format since only 24 relievers are started at any given time, with many of them being starting pitchers who happen to have relief pitcher eligibility. Again, this group of drafters was clued into this thinking, leading to only one closer (Emmanuel Clase at Pick 79) being drafted in the first nine rounds. It was a tremendous display of collective discipline and helps explain why the stud hitters ran out so early. I myself waited until my last two picks to draft my relievers and still landed some halfway decent ones in Trevor Megill and Jordan Romano. They're not foolproof, but if they don't pan out, I'll be able to swap them out easily enough.
- I mentioned that starting pitchers with relief pitcher eligibility (or SPARPs, as they're sometimes known) are popular choices in place of closers in this format, and basically anyone who fit that description was drafted this time, including not just Bowden Francis (Pick 144), Jackson Jobe (146) and Clay Holmes (155), but also Grant Holmes (176), Kris Bubic (188), Nick Martinez (191), Drew Rasmussen (195), Mike Soroka (218) and Hayden Wesneski (234). It's taking the strategy a bit far for my liking, but the rationale is easy to understand.
- Every draft has its oddball picks, and the ones that stood out in this one were Cody Bellinger in Round 3, ahead of Matt Olson and Pete Alonso, and Ryan Jeffers in Round 13. The Jeffers pick was apparently just a mistake, so don't read too much into it. The Bellinger pick was shocking in its own right, but he did average more points per game (3.00) than either Olson (2.75) or Alonso (2.85) in what was a down year for him also, and we expect him to improve with his move to Yankee Stadium. Still, it's hard to imagine his upside being on the level of those two.
