You would think drafting over and over again as part of your job would be fun -- and for the most part, it is!
But as with any repeated action at any job, complacency can set in, and as soon as you begin to take things for granted, a shakeup is sure to happen.
That's what Frank Stampfl, Chris Towers and I experienced in our latest 12-team Rotisserie mock. We've done dozens of drafts at this point, and we've studied ADP religiously. We know where players are supposed to go, and we rely on them to actually go there. So when the time comes to take them and they're no longer there, great distress ensues. You can observe these reactions for yourself because we live-streamed the whole thing.
What sort of picks am I talking about? Well, Isaac Paredes went 115th instead of 162nd. Gavin Williams went 145th instead of 179th. Nico Hoerner went 150th instead of 192nd. Brandon Lowe went 168th instead of 198th. Cedric Mullins went 169th instead of 212th. Clay Holmes went 174th instead of 190th. Sean Manaea went 187th instead of 248th. These are some of my absolute favorites to target in the mid-to-late stages of a Rotisserie draft, and I never had a chance at them.
To be clear, the ADP comparisons that I'm making are from just this past weekend, and there's more where those came from, with spring training risers like Kristian Campbell (173), Jackson Holliday (179), Cam Smith (196), Victor Scott II (226) and Zac Veen (264) rising to their highest levels yet. I could keep listing names and numbers, but you get the point. The draft mostly stuck to the script for the first half, but then rather abruptly, everyone broke with convention and simply got their guys.
Well, not everyone. I wish I had, because while you might think that reaching for players doesn't pay off, it certainly can if they were undervalued in the first place. I look at the two people, Raymond Atherton and Sean Millerick, who most often reached up to grab my guys (which just so happened to be their guys), and I must admit I love their teams.
But I don't love my team. Frank doesn't love his team. Chris doesn't love his team either. So let that be a lesson to you as we head into the biggest draft weekend of the year: All bets are off. Playtime is over, and ADP is merely academic. When the draft begins to break down, with the picks no longer seeming so choreographed, you need to know how much you actually value your guys so that you don't settle for lesser players just because that's where they're supposed to go. (Who knew a good old-fashioned rank list could still have so much value in 2025?)
Because if you can't count on a bunch of seasoned experts to stick to the script in late March, what chance do you give that guy from your ninth-grade homeroom who you've strung along for the past three decades even though you can barely picture his face anymore?
Let's meet those seasoned experts:
1) Raymond Atherton, Fantasy Aceball (@RaymondAtherton)
2) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
3) Nick Fox, NBC Sports (@CT_FOX)
4) Chris Rossi, SportsEthos (@ChrisRossi701)
5) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
6) Sean Millerick, Marlins Maniac (@miasportsminute)
7) Jake Weiner, Prospects1500 (@GatorSosa)
8) George Kurtz, Sportsgrid (@GeorgeKurtz)
9) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
10) Phil Ponebshek, Patton & Company
11) Mike Rippe, TGFBI participant (@MichaelRippe)
12) Jesse Severe, Dynasty Sports Life podcast
A couple of quick notes before we dive into the results:
- With Alexis Diaz and David Bednar no longer seeming like locks for saves with their respective teams, the urgency at closer ratcheted up in a way I didn't really anticipate. It was a little slow to get going, but by the time I looked up in Round 13, the last decent source of them (Jordan Romano) was already gone. There was no point in reaching at that point, which left me to take Diaz and Bednar, along with Kyle Finnegan, in Rounds 18-20. I normally like to scrape the bottom of the saves barrel, but that's yuck even for me.
- Freddie Freeman (ribs) and Royce Lewis (hamstring) didn't fall as much as I thought they might given their new injury concerns, with Freeman coming off the board at Pick 29 and Lewis at Pick 159. Granted, Freeman likely isn't IL-bound, but given that the discomfort in his ribs is in the same spot where he tore cartilage during the postseason, it's reasonable to wonder if the situation could escalate, particularly since the investment in him is so great. Hopefully (and most likely), it's just scar tissue.
- Grayson Rodriguez, who was dropping outside of the top 250 when news of his elbow inflammation first broke, went 192nd in this draft, which I take to mean that concerns over him are easing now that he's already resumed his throwing program. He still figures to miss about the first month of the season.
