TEX
Texas
• #48
•
Age: 36
FantasyPros ADP
54.5
|
Scott's Ranking
61
|
INN
10.2
|
H
11
|
ER
2
|
BB
1
|
K
14
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I recently moved up Jacob deGrom amid reports of him purposely taking a couple miles per hour off his fastball, bringing its velocity to where it was prior to all the injury troubles. But it doesn't change the fact that he hasn't thrown even 100 innings in a season since 2019, and the way he's drafted now makes no concession for that. Even just the fact that he's a 36-year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery would suggest more caution is warranted, and that's before you account for the way his body has repeatedly failed to hold up to the rigors of pitching.
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SF
San Francisco
• #2
•
Age: 29
FantasyPros ADP
68.3
|
Scott's Ranking
84
|
AVG
.251
|
HR
32
|
RBI
112
|
R
93
|
SB
21
|
OPS
.794
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Following a career season, it makes sense that Willy Adames would be drafted earlier than ever before, but the typical Willy Adames season has him going more in the 150 range. This is an especially big move up the rankings, in other words, and to justify it, I need some assurances that his career season was legit. I just don't see it. Everything, from the exit velocity readings to the batted-ball profile to the walk and strikeout rates, was virtually unchanged from previous seasons. I'd be skeptical even if he stayed in Milwaukee, but now he's in San Francisco, playing at a venue that could limit his power further. Give me Bo Bichette instead.
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NYM
N.Y. Mets
• #27
•
Age: 25
FantasyPros ADP
86.8
|
Scott's Ranking
102
|
AVG
.266
|
HR
27
|
RBI
71
|
R
58
|
OPS
.837
|
AB
413
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If there was any skepticism over Mark Vientos' breakout season while it was happening, his five-homer postseason appears to have stamped it out. But if you're wondering about the downside risk, look no further than his strikeout rate, which climbed back to 33 percent from July 1 on. It took an inflated BABIP to keep his batting average respectable during that time. A right-handed hitter who reaches base at a low rate and barely holds his own at third base has little margin for error (see Patrick Wisdom), particularly with Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna and Ronny Mauricio breathing down his neck.
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TB
Tampa Bay
• #13
•
Age: 21
FantasyPros ADP
94.8
|
Scott's Ranking
96
|
AVG
.248
|
HR
6
|
OPS
.724
|
AB
165
|
BB
11
|
K
38
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Wait, isn't Junior Caminero's ADP about the same as my ranking for him? Overall, yes, but if you isolate his ADP to just the past week, which is possible on NFBC, he's about the 70th player drafted on average, ahead of Cal Raleigh, Anthony Santander and Bryce Miller, to name a few. I just think it's presuming too much for a 21-year-old whose limited exposure to the majors hasn't actually amounted to anything. I love the profile and wish I could bet on it, too, but the cost needs to factor in some downside risk. Maybe he's Austin Riley, but sometimes premium exit velocities and a not-bad-at-all strikeout rate turn into ... Jordan Walker.
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COL
Colorado
• #14
•
Age: 23
FantasyPros ADP
133.0
|
Scott's Ranking
161
|
AVG
.269
|
HR
26
|
RBI
78
|
R
83
|
SB
6
|
OPS
.763
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Ezequiel Tovar's 26 home runs last year ranked sixth among shortstops, but ... is there anything else? He's fast enough to steal bases but shows no inclination to run. His poor on-base skills limit his run-scoring potential, and the rest of the Rockies lineup limits his capacity for RBI. Given his 200-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio, it's a wonder his batting average was as high as .269. This looks to me like a one-category specialist being misvalued at a position with no shortage of multi-category performers. Shoot, Dansby Swanson could outshine Tovar in everything, home runs included, and he's going 40 picks later.
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NYY
N.Y. Yankees
• #11
•
Age: 23
FantasyPros ADP
137.0
|
Scott's Ranking
158
|
AVG
.243
|
HR
12
|
RBI
60
|
R
90
|
SB
28
|
OPS
.657
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Two years into his major-league career, we should have a good idea of Anthony Volpe's strengths and weaknesses by now. He's a pretty good base-stealer, has an OK understanding of the strike zone, and ... that's about it. OK, so we also know he can sell out for modest power at the expense of batting average, but the batting average and power aren't much help either way. Seeing as he has yet to turn 24, the book isn't totally written on Volpe, but he'll need wholesale improvements to be more than an also-ran in Fantasy. Better to pop in a round earlier and grab Bo Bichette, or you can just wait for Nico Hoerner or Dansby Swanson later.
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NYY
N.Y. Yankees
• #48
•
Age: 37
FantasyPros ADP
159.0
|
Scott's Ranking
197
|
AVG
.245
|
HR
22
|
RBI
65
|
R
70
|
SB
11
|
OPS
.716
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There may be some confirmation bias at play here seeing as I correctly identified Paul Goldschmidt as a bust prior to last season, but the same logic then applies now. He just can't catch up to heat anymore, batting .241 against four-seamers over the past two years compared to .306 previously. Some will point to his improved second half as reason for encouragement, but the more likely explanation there is that decline isn't linear. Goldschmidt's price isn't horrible for what he is now, but further decline can't be ruled out. I'd prefer Isaac Paredes, Michael Toglia and Ryan Mountcastle straight up.
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TB
Tampa Bay
• #11
•
Age: 25
FantasyPros ADP
175.3
|
Scott's Ranking
205
|
W-L
4-3
|
ERA
3.06
|
WHIP
1.06
|
INN
79.1
|
BB
27
|
K
69
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Shane Baz's ERA and WHIP in his 14 starts last year would suggest he was as good as new after Tommy John surgery, but I'm not sure he ever got his slider back. He threw it 21 percent of the time as compared to 37 percent in 2022, and it had a 22 percent whiff rate as compared to 44 percent in 2022. That's a stark difference, and it manifested as only 7.8 K/9. A pitcher would need to be off the charts at something else -- control, ground balls, etc. -- to thrive at 7.8 K/9, and I'm not seeing that from Baz. His struggles this spring don't do anything to relieve my concerns.
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TB
Tampa Bay
• #44
•
Age: 27
FantasyPros ADP
179.0
|
Scott's Ranking
206
|
W-L
8-8
|
ERA
3.60
|
WHIP
1.15
|
INN
130
|
BB
48
|
K
142
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Ryan Pepiot's 45.6 percent fly-ball rate ranked 10th among pitchers with at least 130 innings last year, which isn't always a bad thing. But at the venue that the Rays will call home in 2024, it'll be a disaster. George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, the Rays' interim home with Tropicana Field out of commission, has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, meaning the same short porch in right field, but with the added catalyst of Florida humidity. It's going to be a launching pad, and it'll be a miracle if Pepiot gets out of there with an ERA below 4.00.
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ARI
Arizona
• #32
•
Age: 26
FantasyPros ADP
179.5
|
Scott's Ranking
283
|
W-L
11-10
|
ERA
4.71
|
WHIP
1.24
|
INN
181.2
|
BB
42
|
K
185
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I'll never understand the Brandon Pfaadt hype. You'll probably tell me that his 4.71 ERA last year is misleading because he also had a 3.78 xERA and 3.61 FIP, to which I say ... OK, let's split the difference and give him a 3.70 ERA. Let's say he also continues to strike out about a batter per inning while keeping his WHIP fairly low due to a respectable walk rate. That makes him, what, Jose Berrios? If that's the upside, just give me Berrios, who's going two rounds later on average. If there's upside for Pfaadt beyond that, I don't see it, not with his modest swinging-strike rate, his penchant for hard contact, and his lack of a true put-away pitch.
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DET
Detroit
• #30
•
Age: 27
FantasyPros ADP
188.5
|
Scott's Ranking
213
|
AVG
.284
|
HR
18
|
OPS
.932
|
AB
264
|
BB
22
|
K
75
|
The percentages for Kerry Carpenter are great. There's no disputing that. Whether they'll add up to useful totals is my concern. The guy almost never plays against left-handers, and while he has set out this spring to prove he can hit them, manager A.J. Hinch sounds unpersuaded. "When I make those moves, maybe I've done a poor job of trying to convince you guys it's about the guy coming off the bench," he said of Carpenter's interest in starting against lefties, "and I think that is going to continue to be the case." It doesn't mean Carpenter can't be useful in that role, but in the same way Joc Pederson is useful. Pederson goes about 180 picks later.
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TB
Tampa Bay
• #2
•
Age: 33
FantasyPros ADP
204.8
|
Scott's Ranking
277
|
AVG
.281
|
HR
14
|
RBI
65
|
R
55
|
OPS
.755
|
AB
563
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I think those drafting Yandy Diaz around Pick 200 are hoping for a return to his 2023 form, when he hit .330 with 22 home runs, but both of those numbers are career highs by a fairly substantial margin. For Fantasy, he's always been a good enough source of batting average but a difficult fit at first base due to his lack of power. The selling point in real life, meanwhile, is on-base percentage, but that bottomed out last year to a modest .341. With Diaz advancing in years and Jonathan Aranda vying for more at-bats, will a continuation of that .341 on-base percentage be enough to keep Diaz in the lineup every day? I'm guessing not, and even if I'm wrong about that, I'd still prefer the power of a Ryan Mountcastle.
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DET
Detroit
• #25
•
Age: 28
FantasyPros ADP
207.5
|
Scott's Ranking
292
|
AVG
.257
|
HR
15
|
RBI
63
|
R
80
|
SB
4
|
OPS
.709
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You may think Gleyber Torres' Fantasy value has been thoroughly suppressed by his disappointing 2024, but I'm here to tell you it hasn't gone far enough. Have you seen what Statcast thinks of his move to Comerica Park? It's about the worst-case scenario for his power production. If he played every game there last year, he'd have hit nine home runs instead of 15, according to Statcast, and if he had played every game there for his entire career, he'd have a total of 104 home runs instead of 138. Drafting him on the same level as Brandon Lowe, one of the premier sluggers at the position, is absolute lunacy to me.
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KC
Kansas City
• #11
•
Age: 25
FantasyPros ADP
227.3
|
Scott's Ranking
272
|
AVG
.231
|
HR
7
|
RBI
58
|
R
84
|
SB
37
|
OPS
.614
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Maikel Garcia played every day for the Royals last year, but let's not mince words here: He was straight-up bad. I mean from a real-life perspective, owing mostly to his .281 on-base percentage, which I think was a big incentive for the Royals to acquire Jonathan India, a high on-base guy and a direct threat to Garcia's playing time. Garcia's steals made him useful for Fantasy, and there's still value in a steals specialist. But not so much that he should be going ahead of everyday players with genuine upside, like Ryan Mountcastle and Matt Shaw.
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